Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dark Horsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Spiky Gaming
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Hara · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Dark Horse
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
sheep · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
Iooften banned
sheep · 3 games
Lion
sheep · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Undyne_ · 3 games
Techies
sheep · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
419 picks · 618 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 392 bans
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 143 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
319 picks · 158 bans
Dark Willow
318 picks · 341 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Dark Horse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total55% Dark Horse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Spiky Gaming 48%Dark Horse 52%
The model gave 52% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 37:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinManic
Witch DoctorUndyne_
SnapfireHara
Dark Willowsheep
Game 2prediction correct6:16
Spiky Gaming 44%Dark Horse 56%
The model gave 56% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 8:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful SpiritManic
Hoodwinksheep
TuskHara
PudgeUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Horse · 55%
Series resultDark Horse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2