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CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
18%
Lion
Lion
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Stoic · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Stoic · 4 games
75%

Dragon Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 5 games
40%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 3 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 618 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 392 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
370 picks · 143 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 469 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 579 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 158 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 341 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 651 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:42
Winter Bear 52%Dragon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEthereal
46% · 32 games55% · 110 games
Windrangerdualrazee
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
53% · 169 games51% · 97 games
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Snapfire
SnapfireStoic
42% · 79 games51% · 165 games
Gyrocopterpaw
Gyrocopter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkArrOw
51% · 92 games
Game 2prediction correct35:48
Winter Bear 49%Dragon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Dragon Esports — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 49:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterInfernal
45% · 70 games53% · 43 games
Weaverpaw
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death ProphetEthereal
51% · 63 games51% · 119 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Venomancer
VenomancerStoic
59% · 41 game49% · 90 games
Primal BeastNorma
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireArrOw
43% · 78 games
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 51%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2