Star Series #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
NS Clubwin 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stariy_Bog Clubloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NS Club
No games played over 6 months.
Stariy_Bog Club
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
564 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 568 bans
Rubick
460 picks · 242 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 536 bans
Puck
331 picks · 872 bans
Beastmaster
321 picks · 809 bans
Tusk
310 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% NS Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Stariy_Bog Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
NS Club 31%Stariy_Bog Club 69%
The model gave 69% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by NS Club.
Game 2prediction correct
NS Club 31%Stariy_Bog Club 69%
The model gave 69% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by Stariy_Bog Club.
Game 3prediction missed
NS Club 31%Stariy_Bog Club 69%
The model gave 69% on Stariy_Bog Club — the game was taken by NS Club.
Model check result
Model favoriteStariy_Bog Club · 69%
Series resultNS Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3