Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MAG.Yolowin 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Crocodileloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MAG.Yolo
Batrideroften banned
czy · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
出省 · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
出省 · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Hoodwink
TrazaM · 2 games
Jakiro
czy · 2 games
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Crocodile
Brewmasteroften banned
Irving · 1 game
Underlord
Irving · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
421 picks · 608 bans
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 383 bans
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 576 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 151 bans
Dragon Knight
314 picks · 656 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 339 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 71%
Hero pool strength64% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:44
MAG.Yolo 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on MAG.Yolo — the game was taken by Crocodile in 47:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerRA1NCLOUD
SlardarIrving
ChenTrazaM
Grimstrokeczy
Game 2prediction missed33:9
MAG.Yolo 48%Crocodile 52%
The model gave 52% on Crocodile — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 19:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordRA1NCLOUD
Dragon KnightIrving
PhoenixTrazaM
Rubickczy
Game 3prediction correct41:9
MAG.Yolo 52%Crocodile 48%
The model gave 52% on MAG.Yolo — the game was taken by MAG.Yolo in 22:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerRA1NCLOUD
BeastmasterIrving
Witch DoctorTrazaM
Dark Willowczy
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 51%
Series resultMAG.Yolo 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3