?
arrow_backBack to match
CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
JustBetterwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 32 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 25 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 17 games
29%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
46%

JustBetter

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Astral · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 7 games
14%
Windranger
Windranger
Focus · 7 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
17%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 6 games
17%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 608 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 384 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 144 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
357 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 576 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 663 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:28
SIBE Team 63%JustBetter 37%
The model gave 63% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 1:05:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
Tinkerряф^^
43% · 3 games49% · 54 games
Chaos KnightFocus
Chaos Knight
Weaver
Weaverrincyq
44% · 165 games48% · 23 games
Shadow FiendThuG
Shadow Fiend
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSOhY
53% · 87 games55% · 51 game
SlardarSkyLark
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsunset
53% · 184 games50% · 170 games
RubickAstral
Rubick
49% · 141 game
BatriderSsaSpartan
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed15:42
SIBE Team 62%JustBetter 38%
The model gave 62% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by JustBetter in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrincyq
59% · 134 games37% · 32 games
Shadow FiendFocus
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
Tinyряф^^
55% · 195 games54% · 128 games
BrewmasterSkyLark
Brewmaster
Windranger
Windrangersunset
45% · 104 games57% · 117 games
Ember SpiritThuG
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireSOhY
47% · 142 games46% · 240 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
44% · 58 games
Spirit BreakerSsaSpartan
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed28:51
SIBE Team 59%JustBetter 41%
The model gave 59% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by JustBetter in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
53% · 171 game49% · 74 games
Chaos KnightFocus
Chaos Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritряф^^
56% · 173 games47% · 172 games
BrewmasterSkyLark
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubicksunset
45% · 263 games47% · 78 games
Void SpiritThuG
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSOhY
47% · 218 games51% · 199 games
WeaverSsaSpartan
Weaver
53% · 302 games
BatriderAstral
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 70%
Series resultJustBetter 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3