Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
AcatSukiwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Techies
Michael · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Prada · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Wits · 1 game
Dark Willowoften banned
Michael · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Wits · 1 game
AcatSuki
Mirana
Kiri · 5 games
Sven
NeKo · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
Grimstroke
Prada · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
417 picks · 609 bans
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 382 bans
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 146 bans
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 575 bans
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 663 bans
Batrider
314 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:25
Fusion 52%AcatSuki 48%
The model gave 52% on Fusion — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 43:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautWits
TerrorbladeCostabile
WeaverMichael
Marskendallx
DisruptorPrada
Witch DoctorYor
45% · 95 games
PhoenixKiri
Game 2prediction missed22:28
Fusion 51%AcatSuki 49%
The model gave 51% on Fusion — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWits
Troll WarlordCostabile
HoodwinkMichael
Dragon Knightkendallx
PhoenixPrada
Witch DoctorYor
62% · 57 games
MiranaKiri
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 51%
Series resultAcatSuki 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2