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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
South Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 609 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 382 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
360 picks · 146 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 575 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 663 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 436 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% beastcoast
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:44
beastcoast 87%South Team 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by South Team in 38:32.
Game 2prediction correct
beastcoast 87%South Team 13%
The model gave 87% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 87%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2