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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ardourloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RedPanda · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 9 games
22%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ukiyo · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Irving · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
TK · 8 games
38%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 8 games
13%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ukiyo · 8 games
13%

Ardour

Venomancer
Venomanceroften banned
出省 · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 612 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 383 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 469 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
356 picks · 148 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 573 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 666 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 154 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
314 picks · 439 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% Team Bright
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:42
Team Bright 62%Ardour 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyukiyo
49% · 50 games44% · 114 games
Ember SpiritMercury
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonTK
51% · 35 games46% · 14 games
Witch Doctor出省
Witch Doctor
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenTz.
64% · 43 games
Game 2prediction correct41:30
Team Bright 73%Ardour 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 44:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 73%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2