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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
13%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
cml · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
cml · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
20%

Salvation Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
40%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
LOyd · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 615 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
369 picks · 386 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
358 picks · 469 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
355 picks · 149 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 577 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 667 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
316 picks · 152 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 444 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Salvation Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Execration 59%Salvation Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAbat
59% · 83 games46% · 109 games
WeaverYoungGodLevi
Weaver
Razor
RazorTino-
45% · 183 games61% · 40 games
Queen of PainWonder'boy
Queen of Pain
Tiny
TinyShanks
50% · 307 games51% · 168 games
Dragon KnightRupido
Dragon Knight
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorcml
50% · 23 games48% · 146 games
LionDric~
Lion
44% · 133 games
PhoenixLOyd
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct22:8
Execration 60%Salvation Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 26:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAbat
47% · 299 games52% · 270 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
57% · 362 games48% · 312 games
PangolierRupido
Pangolier
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidencml
52% · 334 games46% · 76 games
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkShanks
56% · 234 games44% · 363 games
RubickLOyd
Rubick
45% · 208 games
Dark WillowDric~
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 67%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2