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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportswin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IHC Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%

IHC Esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
eleven · 9 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
ace12 · 9 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Se · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
FortuneSoul · 4 games
25%
Mars
Marsoften banned
eleven · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
423 · 4 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ace12 · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ace12 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
417 picks · 616 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 388 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 469 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 148 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 579 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 670 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 151 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 444 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:4
Bleed Esports 52%IHC Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightJaCkky
58% · 69 games50% · 132 games
MorphlingFortuneSoul
Morphling
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
52% · 144 games46% · 111 games
Brewmastereleven
Brewmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
57% · 178 games40% · 151 game
Dark WillowHishge
Dark Willow
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPoloson
46% · 129 games47% · 177 games
Batriderace12
Batrider
Oracle
OracleSe
62% · 51 game
Game 2prediction correct35:6
Bleed Esports 51%IHC Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordJaCkky
53% · 54 games40% · 50 games
UrsaFortuneSoul
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
46% · 123 games59% · 30 games
Visageeleven
Visage
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
48% · 95 games55% · 208 games
TinyHishge
Tiny
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPoloson
52% · 57 games48% · 80 games
Skywrath Mageace12
Skywrath Mage
Bane
BaneSe
46% · 39 games
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 50%
Series resultBleed Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2