CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
Delight · 8 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 5 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Panda · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
417 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 388 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 469 bans
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 579 bans
Dragon Knight
317 picks · 670 bans
Rubick
315 picks · 151 bans
Batrider
313 picks · 444 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:15
One Move 49%Level UP 51%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by One Move in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSSS
SvenCoblackk
Chaos KnightWoE
Vengeful Spiritififall
Storm Spiritxn丶e
TinyJeezy
Elder TitanRein
Clockwerkwaveformn
Game 2prediction missed28:6
One Move 44%Level UP 56%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by One Move in 16:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkerSSS
BroodmotherCoblackk
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Pangolierififall
BloodseekerWoE
Dark WillowJeezy
Crystal MaidenRein
Snapfirewaveformn
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 59%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2