Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yangon Galacticosloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 10 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 9 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
415 picks · 615 bans
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 387 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 465 bans
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 147 bans
Pangolier
319 picks · 579 bans
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 667 bans
Rubick
314 picks · 150 bans
Batrider
313 picks · 444 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:28
Neon Esports 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 53:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCije
GyrocopterKsh
TinyKen
PangolierYoung PH
BrewmasterJG
Phoenixdalul
Game 2prediction correct37:11
Neon Esports 51%Yangon Galacticos 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCije
Shadow FiendYoung PH
Storm SpiritKen
Dragon KnightKsh
UnderlordJG
Dark Willowdalul
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2