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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Dark Horsewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dark Horse

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
sheep · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sheep · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 3 games
0%
Lion
Lion
sheep · 3 games
33%
Techies
Techies
sheep · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
sheep · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 2 games
50%

Spiky Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Hara · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Manic · 2 games
0%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hara · 2 games
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 615 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
368 picks · 387 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 465 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
357 picks · 147 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
319 picks · 579 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 667 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
314 picks · 150 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 444 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:26
Dark Horse 48%Spiky Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksheep
45% · 84 games55% · 53 games
Vengeful SpiritManic
Vengeful Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiUndyne_
64% · 7 games45% · 38 games
DoomHara
Doom
Game 2prediction correct37:23
Dark Horse 51%Spiky Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Dark Horse — the game was taken by Dark Horse in 39:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorUndyne_
58% · 13 games54% · 91 game
MorphlingManic
Morphling
Rubick
Rubicksheep
49% · 144 games43% · 66 games
WeaverHara
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 50%
Series resultDark Horse 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2