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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 32 games
38%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 23 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
31%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
46%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 32 games
59%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 27 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 23 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 633 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 399 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 482 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
368 picks · 155 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
324 picks · 700 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 589 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 155 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 468 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total64% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:39
SIBE Team 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrincyq
47% · 280 games51% · 275 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Void Spirit
Void Spiritряф^^
41% · 99 games52% · 101 game
Troll WarlordSatanic
Troll Warlord
Tiny
Tinysunset
50% · 389 games55% · 172 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSOhY
47% · 234 games53% · 225 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
58% · 229 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct35:42
SIBE Team 42%Yellow Submarine 58%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
55% · 68 games51% · 87 games
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Tiny
Tinyряф^^
56% · 230 games45% · 29 games
Broodmotherkasane
Broodmother
Weaver
Weaversunset
54% · 152 games43% · 48 games
Void Spiriterase
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSOhY
52% · 158 games45% · 272 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
43% · 172 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 64%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2