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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 26 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 22 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 633 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
381 picks · 399 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
370 picks · 482 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
368 picks · 155 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
324 picks · 700 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 589 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 155 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 468 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:38
Natus Vincere Junior 35%PSG Quest 65%
The model gave 65% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangergotthejuice
47% · 185 games53% · 174 games
WeaverTA2000
Weaver
Dazzle
DazzleNiku
57% · 45 games48% · 170 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
54% · 306 games48% · 314 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
50% · 269 games46% · 282 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRiddys
47% · 268 games52% · 133 games
DisruptorDukalis
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct15:30
Natus Vincere Junior 36%PSG Quest 64%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 49:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
52% · 108 games46% · 248 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Weaver
Weavergotthejuice
61% · 188 games47% · 217 games
BrewmasterMalik
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
50% · 230 games40% · 192 games
Dragon KnightNo!ob
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickDaze
49% · 297 games48% · 283 games
Dark WillowOmaR
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
55% · 208 games51% · 91 game
IoDukalis
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 76%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2