The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Entitywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 34 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 22 games
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
437 picks · 651 bans
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 414 bans
Centaur Warrunner
380 picks · 492 bans
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 165 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 602 bans
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 724 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 486 bans
Rubick
325 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 69%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:30
Tundra Esports 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 42:47.
Game 2prediction correct30:25
Tundra Esports 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:35.
Game 3prediction missed13:30
Tundra Esports 52%Entity 48%
The model gave 52% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Entity in 33:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Series resultEntity 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3