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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 7 games
14%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 652 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 418 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
382 picks · 492 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 166 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 731 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 160 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 491 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 606 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:10
One Move 43%Night Pulse 57%
The model gave 57% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by One Move in 39:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageKiritych
46% · 82 games53% · 122 games
WeaverV-Tune
Weaver
Leshrac
Leshracxn丶e
54% · 123 games48% · 263 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
47% · 329 games51% · 168 games
WindrangerWorick
Windranger
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
50% · 174 games51% · 224 games
LionJANTER
Lion
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
51% · 245 games48% · 176 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct20:42
One Move 41%Night Pulse 59%
The model gave 59% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 40:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
43% · 83 games55% · 89 games
BloodseekerV-Tune
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
45% · 169 games48% · 139 games
BeastmasterKami
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierSSS
50% · 298 games52% · 233 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixnot me
46% · 200 games60% · 164 games
WeaverJANTER
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRein
48% · 118 games53% · 243 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2