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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
50%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 22 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
TA2000 · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 650 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
391 picks · 417 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 492 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
379 picks · 166 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 731 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
329 picks · 160 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 491 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 606 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:22
Team Secret 36%PSG Quest 64%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
46% · 74 games49% · 187 games
Vengeful SpiritTA2000
Vengeful Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
55% · 293 games51% · 239 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
46% · 186 games53% · 125 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowShishak
53% · 199 games44% · 129 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
53% · 72 games
Elder TitanDukalis
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:29
Team Secret 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 47:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
44% · 123 games50% · 236 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Razor
RazorCrystallis
46% · 153 games52% · 257 games
PangolierMalik
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonShishak
57% · 256 games49% · 63 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
56% · 281 game46% · 157 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
47% · 100 games
Spirit BreakerDukalis
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 75%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2