The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Talon Esports
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 22 games
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 20 games
Marssignature
Ws · 19 games
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 15 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 13 games
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
Hoodwink
Jhocam · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
440 picks · 654 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
382 picks · 494 bans
Crystal Maiden
382 picks · 168 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 732 bans
Rubick
328 picks · 162 bans
Batrider
326 picks · 493 bans
Pangolier
325 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 46%
Hero pool strength55% Talon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Aurora Gaming 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 41:55.
Game 2prediction missed22:32
Aurora Gaming 65%Talon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 50:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 65%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2