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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Poloson · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 8 games
88%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mikoto · 7 games
57%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
JaCkky · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
DJ · 6 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 6 games
50%

TNC Predator

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mjz · 21 game
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Palos · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gabbi · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Gabbi · 16 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Abed · 16 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Gabbi · 15 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Mjz · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 655 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 417 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 497 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 169 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 736 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
328 picks · 499 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
328 picks · 163 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 609 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 72%
Hero pool strength51% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:31
Bleed Esports 39%TNC Predator 61%
The model gave 61% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEmo
44% · 127 games49% · 107 games
WeaverPalos
Weaver
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
59% · 77 games53% · 90 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
53% · 94 games45% · 181 game
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerPoloson
51% · 91 game48% · 175 games
Dark WillowJing
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSe
51% · 164 games
Game 2prediction correct27:33
Bleed Esports 37%TNC Predator 63%
The model gave 63% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 54:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEmo
53% · 51 game52% · 48 games
UrsaPalos
Ursa
Weaver
WeaverJaCkky
49% · 142 games51% · 109 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Magnus
Magnuszeal
51% · 98 games54% · 167 games
ClockwerkJing
Clockwerk
Muerta
MuertaPoloson
46% · 87 games43% · 195 games
PhoenixKuku
Phoenix
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSe
52% · 141 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 70%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2