The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PRISM Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
cml · 4 games
PRISM Esports
Brewmasteroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Razoroften banned
423 · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
423 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
440 picks · 657 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
384 picks · 501 bans
Crystal Maiden
381 picks · 169 bans
Batrider
332 picks · 499 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 740 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 610 bans
Rubick
329 picks · 162 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 64%
Hero pool strength64% PRISM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:30
Execration 47%PRISM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 48:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorAbat
Ursa423
BeastmasterTino-
Brewmasterseimei
ClockwerkShanks
Earth SpiritBob
Crystal Maidencml
Game 2prediction missed31:30
Execration 49%PRISM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyAbat
Void SpiritBob
RazorTino-
Lycan423
Enchantresscml
Windrangerseimei
Elder TitanShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 50%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2