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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
SIBE Teamloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
37%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 22 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
31%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
46%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 683 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 426 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 523 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
390 picks · 179 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 629 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 170 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
335 picks · 537 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 783 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:36
SIBE Team 48%Night Pulse 52%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 22:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
53% · 57 games52% · 39 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Lina
Linaряф^^
40% · 83 games47% · 91 game
TimbersawWorick
Timbersaw
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSOhY
55% · 48 games44% · 5 games
Night StalkerKami
Night Stalker
Pudge
Pudgesunset
52% · 44 games47% · 74 games
Dark WillowJANTER
Dark Willow
63% · 23 games
OracleHduo
Oracle
Game 2prediction missed48:44
SIBE Team 49%Night Pulse 51%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 50:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendselfhate
54% · 15 games56% · 133 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Windranger
Windrangerряф^^
49% · 95 games49% · 77 games
LinaWorick
Lina
Dark Willow
Dark WillowSOhY
49% · 165 games44% · 36 games
Night StalkerKami
Night Stalker
Rubick
Rubicksunset
50% · 191 game49% · 144 games
WeaverJANTER
Weaver
51% · 76 games
Elder TitanHduo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2