The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Dandelionsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Snapfire
Daze · 28 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 14 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
447 picks · 682 bans
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 523 bans
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 180 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
334 picks · 541 bans
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 787 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:19
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Dandelions 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:18.
Game 2prediction missed28:29
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Dandelions 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dandelions in 35:57.
Game 3prediction correct31:17
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Dandelions 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 50%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3