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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 18 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 31 game
58%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 26 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 22 games
45%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
50%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 682 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 425 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 522 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 180 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
338 picks · 169 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 632 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
333 picks · 540 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 786 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:16
Nemiga Gaming 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightLukas
49% · 101 game47% · 283 games
GyrocopterSatanic
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
48% · 243 games49% · 205 games
Brewmasterkasane
Brewmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMikSa`
46% · 339 games54% · 337 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Weaver
Weaveraik
55% · 243 games57% · 243 games
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Clockwerk
Rubick
Rubickjesv
44% · 376 games51% · 234 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Nemiga Gaming 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaLukas
51% · 86 games46% · 108 games
Troll WarlordSatanic
Troll Warlord
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
49% · 248 games51% · 287 games
Pangoliererase
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
51% · 153 games43% · 78 games
Underlordkasane
Underlord
Weaver
Weaverjesv
61% · 182 games46% · 200 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Batrider
Batrideraik
51% · 232 games50% · 228 games
Dark Willowrue
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2