Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dragon Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
Dragon Esports
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
445 picks · 680 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 424 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 522 bans
Crystal Maiden
394 picks · 181 bans
Rubick
339 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 544 bans
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Dragon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:28
One Move 54%Dragon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinxn丶e
Troll Warlordpaw
Dragon KnightSSS
Broodmotherdualrazee
Crystal MaidenRein
Primal BeastNorma
Techiesnot me
Game 2prediction missed14:48
One Move 53%Dragon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordSSS
Lifestealerpaw
Windrangerxn丶e
Invokerdualrazee
VenomancerRein
PangolierNorma
Spirit Breakernot me
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultDragon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2