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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Secretloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 33 games
70%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Whitemon · 22 games
64%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Puppey · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 20 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 10 games
70%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 680 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
400 picks · 182 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 424 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 528 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 167 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
337 picks · 548 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 634 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 798 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 42%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total83% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Tundra Esports 69%Team Secret 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
44% · 30 games53% · 91 game
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTopson
43% · 173 games48% · 302 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderRAMZES666
53% · 263 games56% · 176 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Chen
ChenWhitemon
50% · 71 game51% · 253 games
Shadow DemonShishak
Shadow Demon
Tiny
Tiny9Class
49% · 285 games
Game 2prediction correct30:14
Tundra Esports 69%Team Secret 31%
The model gave 69% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
52% · 33 games52% · 97 games
EnigmaBOOM
Enigma
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
51% · 121 game51% · 132 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTopson
46% · 30 games53% · 88 games
Skywrath MagePuppey
Skywrath Mage
Phoenix
PhoenixWhitemon
41% · 104 games56% · 67 games
MarciShishak
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
46% · 96 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 83%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2