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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
30%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 31 game
58%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 26 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 22 games
45%
Luna
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 682 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
411 picks · 187 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 423 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 534 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
345 picks · 561 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 171 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 637 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 823 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:21
One Move 34%Yellow Submarine 66%
The model gave 66% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAinkrad
35% · 23 games64% · 38 games
Chaos KnightSatanic
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSSS
46% · 94 games52% · 62 games
Linaerase
Lina
Phoenix
Phoenixnot me
40% · 198 games61% · 25 games
BroodmotherSmiling Knight
Broodmother
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRein
54% · 69 games55% · 139 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
50% · 120 games
Snapfireasdekor_r
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct13:36
One Move 33%Yellow Submarine 67%
The model gave 67% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsSSS
44% · 170 games54% · 114 games
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
47% · 146 games55% · 30 games
Shadow Fienderase
Shadow Fiend
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
48% · 156 games55% · 120 games
BeastmasterSmiling Knight
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkRein
48% · 125 games50% · 222 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
52% · 111 games
Disruptorasdekor_r
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 76%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2