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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Night Pulseloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 19 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 12 games
58%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 9 games
78%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 8 games
25%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
JANTER · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 680 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
409 picks · 188 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 534 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 421 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 562 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
342 picks · 169 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 637 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 828 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total52% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:9
Nemiga Gaming 50%Night Pulse 50%
The model gave 50% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordLukas
57% · 62 games48% · 59 games
Chaos KnightV-Tune
Chaos Knight
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
55% · 227 games48% · 99 games
BeastmasterKami
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
60% · 111 games37% · 74 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
52% · 198 games43% · 419 games
RubickJANTER
Rubick
Batrider
Batriderjesv
54% · 209 games48% · 156 games
GrimstrokeHduo
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct8:23
Nemiga Gaming 49%Night Pulse 51%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 31:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordLukas
53% · 72 games45% · 274 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
50% · 249 games62% · 50 games
Chaos KnightV-Tune
Chaos Knight
Visage
VisageMikSa`
51% · 40 games47% · 250 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Rubick
Rubickjesv
46% · 259 games57% · 201 game
Dark WillowJANTER
Dark Willow
Phoenix
Phoenixaik
42% · 179 games61% · 24 games
LichHduo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2