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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 41 game
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 34 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 27 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 24 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 19 games
58%

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 680 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
409 picks · 188 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 534 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 421 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
344 picks · 562 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
342 picks · 169 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 637 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 828 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:26
MOUZ 67%Dandelions 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dandelions in 37:20.
Game 2prediction correct32:19
MOUZ 67%Dandelions 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:55.
Game 3prediction missed8:23
MOUZ 67%Dandelions 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Dandelions in 30:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 67%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3