The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Salvation Gamingloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Salvation Gaming
Gyrocopteroften banned
YoungGodLevi · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Dric~ · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wonder'boy · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
LOyd · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 3 games
Yangon Galacticos
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
449 picks · 679 bans
Crystal Maiden
409 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
344 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
342 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 637 bans
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 826 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Salvation Gaming 42%Yangon Galacticos 58%
The model gave 58% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld DestroyerWonder'boy
Troll WarlordKsh
UrsaYoungGodLevi
Ember SpiritYoung PH
PangolierRupido
SnapfireDric~
Witch DoctorLOyd
Game 2prediction correct19:25
Salvation Gaming 42%Yangon Galacticos 58%
The model gave 58% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
MorphlingKsh
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
PuckYoung PH
MarciRupido
LionDric~
PudgeLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 65%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2