The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MANTA Esportsloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PRISM Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MANTA Esports
Marsoften banned
Kimizu · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Kimizu · 1 game
PRISM Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
451 picks · 679 bans
Crystal Maiden
413 picks · 193 bans
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 538 bans
Gyrocopter
394 picks · 423 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 570 bans
Rubick
345 picks · 170 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 639 bans
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 836 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% PRISM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% PRISM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MANTA Esports 27%PRISM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
MANTA Esports 27%PRISM Esports 73%
The model gave 73% on PRISM Esports — the game was taken by PRISM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoritePRISM Esports · 73%
Series resultPRISM Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2