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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SIBE Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 9 games
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 20 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 15 games
27%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 682 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
419 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 541 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 426 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 578 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 643 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 844 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% SIBE Team
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total65% SIBE Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:43
One Move 44%SIBE Team 56%
The model gave 56% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 48:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSSS
48% · 248 games48% · 150 games
Morphlingselfhate
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
56% · 107 games49% · 170 games
Tinyряф^^
Tiny
Weaver
Weavernot me
51% · 136 games45% · 230 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerRein
50% · 101 game57% · 42 games
Elder TitanSOhY
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct33:43
One Move 43%SIBE Team 57%
The model gave 57% on SIBE Team — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 41:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAinkrad
40% · 24 games44% · 23 games
Ursaselfhate
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
53% · 278 games46% · 154 games
Tinyряф^^
Tiny
Marci
Marcinot me
62% · 55 games42% · 119 games
PhoenixSOhY
Phoenix
Venomancer
VenomancerRein
58% · 46 games50% · 107 games
Shadow Demonsunset
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteSIBE Team · 65%
Series resultSIBE Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2