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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 18 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 17 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 15 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%

Dragon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
paw · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Norma · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
paw · 2 games
50%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
dualrazee · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 680 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 541 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 426 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 580 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 171 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 642 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 845 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:34
Nemiga Gaming 62%Dragon Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightLukas
44% · 39 games50% · 192 games
Lifestealerpaw
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
49% · 140 games51% · 131 game
BeastmasterNorma
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMikSa`
46% · 107 games55% · 348 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickjesv
52% · 225 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenaik
47% · 160 games
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Nemiga Gaming 66%Dragon Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
56% · 115 games41% · 74 games
Broodmotherdualrazee
Broodmother
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
49% · 111 games50% · 137 games
Medusapaw
Medusa
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
53% · 76 games45% · 333 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Batrider
Batriderjesv
54% · 158 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkaik
60% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 75%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2