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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Shishak · 19 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Puppey · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
BOOM · 9 games
67%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 34 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 32 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 27 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 23 games
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 678 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 195 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
398 picks · 541 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 424 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 579 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
348 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 641 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
331 picks · 845 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:9
Team Secret 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
46% · 66 games52% · 206 games
Storm SpiritSupream^
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
47% · 247 games57% · 57 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Batrider
BatriderPuppey
51% · 276 games54% · 143 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickShishak
47% · 279 games47% · 224 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Shadow Demon
50% · 238 games
Vengeful Spiritbengan
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Team Secret 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
52% · 74 games44% · 17 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Enigma
EnigmaBOOM
47% · 95 games51% · 71 game
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Disruptor
DisruptorPuppey
57% · 85 games51% · 87 games
Vengeful SpiritForce
Vengeful Spirit
Marci
MarciShishak
56% · 55 games46% · 56 games
Iobengan
Io
41% · 78 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultTeam Secret 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2