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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 50 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 38 games
66%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 32 games
69%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 27 games
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 24 games
71%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
9Class · 21 game
57%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 34 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 32 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 16 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 677 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
421 picks · 194 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 544 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 425 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 581 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 171 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 641 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 843 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Tundra Esports 72%Natus Vincere Junior 28%
The model gave 72% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordPure~
44% · 89 games56% · 101 game
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTopson
45% · 201 game46% · 66 games
Earth SpiritNiku
Earth Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaRAMZES666
52% · 118 games50% · 127 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
47% · 220 games52% · 222 games
BatriderDaze
Batrider
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
55% · 86 games53% · 198 games
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Tundra Esports 71%Natus Vincere Junior 29%
The model gave 71% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherPure~
48% · 42 games44% · 47 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerRAMZES666
49% · 226 games52% · 127 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTopson
53% · 159 games50% · 58 games
Void SpiritNiku
Void Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
53% · 72 games50% · 233 games
Shadow DemonDaze
Shadow Demon
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
48% · 156 games52% · 190 games
Crystal MaidenRiddys
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 88%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2