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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Execrationwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Execration

Techies
Techies
cml · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
17%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Tino- · 4 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 678 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
420 picks · 194 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 546 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 425 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 581 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 170 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 641 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
332 picks · 845 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 30%
Hero pool strength57% Blacklist International
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:40
Blacklist International 81%Execration 19%
The model gave 81% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration in 47:57.
Game 2prediction missed
Blacklist International 81%Execration 19%
The model gave 81% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 81%
Series resultExecration 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2