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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Leviatanloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Leviatan

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 25 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 20 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 680 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
424 picks · 196 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 551 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 420 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
350 picks · 591 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
349 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 852 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
334 picks · 643 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total68% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:19
Leviatan 40%BOOM Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Leviatan in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinStojkov
48% · 109 games50% · 63 games
MedusaPakazs
Medusa
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMnz
51% · 66 games54% · 85 games
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkpii
51% · 78 games59% · 43 games
Night StalkerSacred
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXepher
55% · 110 games50% · 64 games
WarlockYadomi
Warlock
36% · 108 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct14:40
Leviatan 41%BOOM Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMnz
61% · 86 games46% · 20 games
AbaddonPakazs
Abaddon
Dazzle
Dazzlekpii
58% · 29 games42% · 142 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStojkov
53% · 182 games47% · 194 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyXepher
54% · 222 games51% · 31 game
WarlockYadomi
Warlock
35% · 132 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct13:30
Leviatan 41%BOOM Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 39:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMnz
52% · 236 games48% · 225 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkpii
57% · 238 games50% · 154 games
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
47% · 151 game52% · 185 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXepher
51% · 148 games43% · 52 games
WarlockYadomi
Warlock
47% · 157 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 68%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3