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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
9Pandaswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 14 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 11 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Solo · 7 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
DarkLord^ · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Solo · 7 games
100%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 680 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
430 picks · 197 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
397 picks · 556 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 419 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 168 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 603 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 863 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 644 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:32
9Pandas 48%Night Pulse 52%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 50:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightDarkLord^
45% · 51 game53% · 113 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAlberkaaa
51% · 127 games50% · 62 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
48% · 132 games53% · 83 games
Monkey KingWorick
Monkey King
Pugna
PugnaSolo
51% · 101 game50% · 162 games
ClockwerkJANTER
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
48% · 123 games50% · 114 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed30:13
9Pandas 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorDarkLord^
47% · 153 games54% · 88 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
45% · 140 games57% · 40 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
45% · 158 games44% · 171 game
TimbersawWorick
Timbersaw
Weaver
Weaversayuw
48% · 168 games53% · 142 games
ClockwerkJANTER
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
59% · 99 games53% · 277 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Game 3prediction missed32:10
9Pandas 46%Night Pulse 54%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDarkLord^
43% · 205 games59% · 44 games
UrsaV-Tune
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
46% · 138 games52% · 122 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Windranger
Windrangerkiyotaka
46% · 125 games53% · 235 games
Centaur WarrunnerKami
Centaur Warrunner
Weaver
Weaversayuw
52% · 148 games53% · 159 games
ClockwerkJANTER
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
49% · 76 games50% · 132 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 52%
Series result9Pandas 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3