FTS vs Level UP — prediction ACS 1 · Dota 2

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Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3

result vs prediction

FFTSwin 2:1

series probability

11%89%

probability at match start · final 2:1

Level UPloss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

FTS

No games played over 6 months.

Level UP

Hoodwinksignature

queezy · 15 games

60%

Techiessignature

Htrd · 14 games

86%

Ember Spiritsignature

Ainkrad · 12 games

75%

Void Spiritsignature

Ainkrad · 12 games

67%

Windranger

queezy · 12 games

42%

Witch Doctorsignature

Htrd · 9 games

67%

Dark Willow

queezy · 8 games

50%

Spectreoften banned

WoE · 8 games

50%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

500 picks · 364 bans

51%

Clockwerk

365 picks · 654 bans

53%

Rubick

351 picks · 196 bans

48%

Bane

333 picks · 375 bans

58%

Tiny

321 picks · 346 bans

50%

Ember Spirit

312 picks · 448 bans

55%

Windranger

311 picks · 232 bans

47%

Storm Spirit

297 picks · 330 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%

Hero pool strength56% Level UP

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total89% Level UP

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct31:44

FTS 24%Level UP 76%

The model gave 76% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo