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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Night Pulsewin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JANTER · 7 games
86%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 7 games
29%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 6 games
67%

Nemiga Gaming

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 15 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Techies
Techies
aik · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 690 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
434 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 562 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 419 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 167 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 624 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 883 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 657 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total53% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Night Pulse 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 33:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
53% · 157 games46% · 229 games
TinyLukas
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKami
58% · 91 game44% · 47 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawWorick
51% · 205 games45% · 131 game
Windrangernicky`cool
Windranger
Weaver
WeaverJANTER
49% · 95 games51% · 84 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
52% · 131 game50% · 188 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct48:21
Night Pulse 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 54:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
56% · 52 games60% · 69 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawWorick
42% · 202 games43% · 131 game
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterKami
53% · 97 games48% · 96 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
Weaver
WeaverJANTER
54% · 65 games43% · 54 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeHduo
56% · 80 games50% · 146 games
Crystal Maidenaik
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 53%
Series resultNight Pulse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2