?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Leviatanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 17 games
47%

Leviatan

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 5 games
80%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 4 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
kpii · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 690 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
434 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 562 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 419 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
358 picks · 166 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
357 picks · 623 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 882 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 656 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:32
Heroic 63%Leviatan 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 53:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin4nalog
43% · 107 games48% · 55 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Weaver
WeaverK1
51% · 90 games50% · 32 games
SniperStojkov
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierDavai
50% · 146 games56% · 131 game
Doomkpii
Doom
Muerta
MuertaScofield
39% · 69 games55% · 200 games
Dark WillowXepher
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiKJ
60% · 6 games
Game 2prediction correct32:27
Heroic 64%Leviatan 36%
The model gave 64% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 52:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
56% · 173 games47% · 66 games
Troll WarlordMnz
Troll Warlord
Pudge
Pudge4nalog
48% · 48 games44% · 156 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
53% · 40 games49% · 215 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKJ
51% · 186 games51% · 176 games
PhoenixXepher
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark WillowScofield
53% · 166 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 75%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2