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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 29 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 24 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
63%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 25 games
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 19 games
37%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 14 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 690 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
433 picks · 201 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
402 picks · 561 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
396 picks · 419 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
356 picks · 622 bans
47%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 166 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 881 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 655 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total70% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:26
Virtus.pro 61%HULIGANI 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
51% · 76 games39% · 56 games
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Chaos Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSquad1x
52% · 218 games51% · 225 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterNoticed
49% · 112 games56% · 52 games
UnderlordBb3px
Underlord
Tiny
TinyAntares
52% · 252 games45% · 370 games
RubickPanto
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
55% · 221 game50% · 176 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed28:43
Virtus.pro 62%HULIGANI 38%
The model gave 62% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:08:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
57% · 77 games59% · 52 games
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Chaos Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterNoticed
51% · 164 games48% · 71 game
Earth Spiritre1bl
Earth Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSquad1x
43% · 58 games50% · 109 games
Dark SeerBb3px
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
47% · 172 games50% · 235 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderAntares
52% · 246 games45% · 250 games
RubickPanto
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 70%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2