The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 41 game
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 32 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 24 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Natus Vincere
Lion
Zayac · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 13 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nefrit · 12 games
Tinysignature
Zayac · 12 games
Crystal Maiden
Malady · 11 games
Razoroften banned
Nefrit · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 11 games
Techies
Zayac · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
446 picks · 694 bans
Crystal Maiden
435 picks · 204 bans
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 564 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 627 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 167 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 889 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 657 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:29
1w Team 44%Natus Vincere 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 39:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
UrsaYuragi
BeastmasterCloud
Shadow FiendSancity
RazorChira JUNIOR
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Weaverswedenstrong
MarciZayac
ClockwerkRESPECT
LichMalady
Game 2prediction missed43:6
1w Team 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 40:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerMunkushi~
GyrocopterYuragi
BrewmasterCloud
Ember SpiritSancity
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Spirit BreakerZayac
Marciswedenstrong
Vengeful SpiritNefrit
BatriderRESPECT
Crystal MaidenMalady
Game 3prediction missed34:27
1w Team 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by 1w Team in 48:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
WindrangerYuragi
TinyChira JUNIOR
BeastmasterNefrit
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Bounty HunterSancity
Dark Willowswedenstrong
RubickZayac
ClockwerkRESPECT
Vengeful SpiritMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series result1w Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3