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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Oscar · 6 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Demon · 6 games
17%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Oscar · 4 games
25%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 18 games
72%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 16 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 16 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
43%
Techies
Techiessignature
Panda · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 699 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
436 picks · 205 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 562 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
400 picks · 419 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 629 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 896 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 658 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:21
Infinity Esports 35%BOOM Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 1:08:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerLumière
52% · 196 games54% · 30 games
PudgePakazs
Pudge
Monkey King
Monkey KingPiPi
47% · 90 games56% · 164 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenGardick
49% · 265 games53% · 185 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGenek
44% · 125 games53% · 156 games
Shadow DemonMatthew
Shadow Demon
46% · 141 game
Dark WillowYadomi
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct5:19
Infinity Esports 33%BOOM Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 25:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyLumière
51% · 163 games47% · 85 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Monkey King
Monkey KingPiPi
46% · 53 games51% · 107 games
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGenek
51% · 117 games43% · 107 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixGardick
54% · 135 games58% · 48 games
VenomancerYadomi
Venomancer
49% · 121 game
TuskMatthew
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct14:27
Infinity Esports 34%BOOM Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinLumière
62% · 15 games41% · 65 games
Troll WarlordPakazs
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
46% · 100 games56% · 84 games
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenGardick
51% · 122 games50% · 31 game
Night StalkerSacred
Night Stalker
Weaver
WeaverGenek
55% · 71 game49% · 28 games
VenomancerYadomi
Venomancer
48% · 100 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 78%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3