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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Prada · 1 game
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 1 game
0%
Techies
Techies
Michael · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 1 game
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Prada · 1 game
0%

Lava

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Genek · 7 games
14%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
20%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Frank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 698 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
435 picks · 205 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
407 picks · 562 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 419 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
362 picks · 629 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
356 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
343 picks · 896 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
338 picks · 658 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength54% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:28
Fusion 41%Lava 59%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 37:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWits
54% · 182 games53% · 223 games
TinyDaaD-
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
46% · 150 games58% · 115 games
BrewmasterAdrx
Brewmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPrada
55% · 145 games39% · 57 games
SnapfirePamplona
Snapfire
42% · 82 games
Pugna555k
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed39:14
Fusion 41%Lava 59%
The model gave 59% on Lava — the game was taken by Fusion in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidWits
44% · 146 games52% · 65 games
Troll WarlordDaaD-
Troll Warlord
Techies
TechiesMichael
43% · 178 games51% · 205 games
PangolierAdrx
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixPrada
46% · 147 games59% · 121 game
Clockwerk555k
Clockwerk
61% · 80 games
Skywrath MagePamplona
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed46:10
Fusion 43%Lava 57%
The model gave 57% on Lava — the game was taken by Fusion in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaWits
54% · 55 games61% · 51 game
LifestealerDaaD-
Lifestealer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
45% · 141 game54% · 76 games
DoomAdrx
Doom
Disruptor
DisruptorPrada
49% · 121 game55% · 111 games
Crystal Maiden555k
Crystal Maiden
38% · 79 games
PhoenixPamplona
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 65%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3