NoPing VPN vs MAMUTEROS — prediction I2ЗК · Dota 2

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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

NoPing VPNwin 2:0

series probability

67%33%

probability at match start · final 2:0

MMAMUTEROSloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Brewmasteroften banned

Oscar · 1 game

Night Stalkeroften banned

Oscar · 1 game

Oracle

CHAAANNN · 1 game

Snapfire

CHAAANNN · 1 game

Spirit Breakeroften banned

Demon · 1 game

Tinyoften banned

hFn · 1 game

Ursaoften banned

hFn · 1 game

Weaveroften banned

Demon · 1 game

MAMUTEROS

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

444 picks · 701 bans

52%

Crystal Maiden

437 picks · 208 bans

54%

Centaur Warrunner

407 picks · 564 bans

53%

Gyrocopter

403 picks · 420 bans

50%

Batrider

365 picks · 632 bans

48%

Rubick

356 picks · 167 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

343 picks · 902 bans

53%

Pangolier

337 picks · 660 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%

Hero pool strength55% MAMUTEROS

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total67% NoPing VPN

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct37:26

NoPing VPN 58%MAMUTEROS 42%

The model gave 58% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 40:52.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo