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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 28 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 23 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
sayuw · 22 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 21 game
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Fng · 20 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Squad1x · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
53%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 8 games
38%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wein · 7 games
14%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 6 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
450 picks · 213 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 706 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
409 picks · 582 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
409 picks · 424 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 653 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
362 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 923 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 672 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 46%
Hero pool strength63% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total87% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Virtus.pro 74%One Move 26%
The model gave 74% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKiritych
51% · 51 game38% · 53 games
Chaos Knightnesfeer
Chaos Knight
Leshrac
LeshracSquad1x
53% · 106 games47% · 132 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNoticed
53% · 46 games52% · 255 games
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
Centaur Warrunner
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFng
55% · 176 games46% · 25 games
Ancient ApparitionRein
Ancient Apparition
Tiny
TinyAntares
52% · 225 games50% · 139 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct26:26
Virtus.pro 73%One Move 27%
The model gave 73% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
56% · 35 games43% · 50 games
Juggernautnesfeer
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSquad1x
55% · 72 games53% · 85 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
49% · 123 games40% · 10 games
Sand KingSSS
Sand King
Phoenix
PhoenixFng
51% · 133 games47% · 108 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageAntares
52% · 62 games49% · 172 games
Dark WillowRein
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 87%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2