Midas Club vs Fusion — prediction I2ЗК · Dota 2

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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Midas Clubwin 2:0

series probability

76%24%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Fusionloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Midas Club

Crystal Maidensignature

Wij · 10 games

60%

Techies

Hyko · 9 games

44%

Disruptorsignature

Wij · 6 games

67%

Brewmasteroften banned

FCR · 4 games

75%

Chenoften banned

Hyko · 4 games

25%

Dragon Knightoften banned

4dr · 4 games

50%

Gyrocopteroften banned

Costabile · 4 games

25%

Marsoften banned

4dr · 4 games

75%

Fusion

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Crystal Maiden

457 picks · 214 bans

52%

Tiny

446 picks · 711 bans

52%

Gyrocopter

415 picks · 425 bans

50%

Centaur Warrunner

414 picks · 588 bans

53%

Batrider

374 picks · 663 bans

48%

Rubick

366 picks · 169 bans

51%

Dragon Knight

352 picks · 934 bans

53%

Pangolier

347 picks · 676 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%

Hero pool strength53% Midas Club

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total76% Midas Club

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct38:37

Midas Club 64%Fusion 36%

The model gave 64% on Midas Club — the game was taken by Midas Club in 52:28.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo