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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Leviatanwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoPing VPNloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Leviatan

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 4 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
kpii · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 4 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
kpii · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
50%

NoPing VPN

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 215 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
446 picks · 715 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
417 picks · 589 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
415 picks · 425 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
376 picks · 667 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
365 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 940 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 680 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Leviatan 54%NoPing VPN 46%
The model gave 54% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightMnz
46% · 56 games51% · 137 games
BrewmasterOscar
Brewmaster
Zeus
ZeusStojkov
50% · 83 games57% · 237 games
TinyhFn
Tiny
Pangolier
Pangolierkpii
48% · 191 game52% · 131 game
WeaverDemon
Weaver
Rubick
RubickXepher
43% · 210 games54% · 35 games
OracleCHAAANNN
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct33:21
Leviatan 53%NoPing VPN 47%
The model gave 53% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 33:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMnz
38% · 8 games61% · 58 games
UrsahFn
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
55% · 91 game51% · 31 game
Night StalkerOscar
Night Stalker
Primal Beast
Primal Beastkpii
52% · 79 games45% · 82 games
Spirit BreakerDemon
Spirit Breaker
Phoenix
PhoenixXepher
42% · 143 games48% · 150 games
SnapfireCHAAANNN
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 59%
Series resultLeviatan 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2