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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantasy Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
KJ · 35 games
49%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 26 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 20 games
70%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 19 games
47%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 18 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 18 games
39%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
K1 · 16 games
44%

Fantasy Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
462 picks · 215 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 717 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 590 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 423 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
376 picks · 669 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
367 picks · 168 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 943 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 680 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:7
Heroic 78%Fantasy Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 27:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerK1
57% · 119 games52% · 69 games
Troll WarlordDM
Troll Warlord
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin4nalog
50% · 116 games50% · 104 games
WindrangerRobo-Z
Windranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerDavai
53% · 58 games50% · 138 games
Brewmasterdrakesh1t
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
43% · 142 games47% · 128 games
HoodwinkZxca
Hoodwink
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorScofield
53% · 18 games50% · 14 games
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Heroic 77%Fantasy Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 22:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersaw4nalog
48% · 276 games56% · 109 games
Vengeful SpiritDM
Vengeful Spirit
Razor
RazorK1
44% · 208 games47% · 147 games
Dragon KnightRobo-Z
Dragon Knight
Night Stalker
Night StalkerDavai
44% · 58 games56% · 150 games
Doomdrakesh1t
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerScofield
50% · 120 games51% · 161 game
Shadow DemonZxca
Shadow Demon
Marci
MarciKJ
54% · 62 games50% · 157 games
EnchantressJimmyCoff666
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 92%
Series resultHeroic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2